Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a serious threat to poultry farming, trade, and public health worldwide. Although Morocco has not yet reported any confirmed HPAI outbreaks, the country is considered vulnerable due to the circulation of a milder form of the virus (H9N2) since 2016, its proximity to affected neighboring countries, and its location along major migratory bird routes.
In this study, Boudouma et al. from our partners at the Agronomy and Veterinary Institute Hassan II applied a spatial multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with geographic information systems to identify high-risk provinces for HPAI introduction and spread. Risk factors were identified through literature review and consultation with 73 poultry-sector experts, covering both introduction pathways such as wetlands and live poultry imports, and spread factors such as poultry density, live bird markets, and transport networks.
The findings show that about a third of Moroccan provinces are at high-to-very high risk of HPAI introduction, particularly along northern coastal and border regions. For spread risk, over 40% of provinces were classified as high to very high, concentrated around major poultry production and trade hubs. This study provides the first comprehensive spatial risk maps for HPAI in Morocco, offering a decision-support tool for veterinary authorities to prioritise early detection and targeted biosecurity measures.
Boudouma, F., Hajji, H., Ducatez, M. et al. Spatial risk mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Morocco using geographic information system and multi-criteria decision analysis: Implications for targeted surveillance and control. Vet World 18, 3713–3730 (2025). https://doi.org/10.14202/vetworld.2025.3713-3730
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